Michael Ganslmeier
I
About
I am an Assistant Professor in Data Science at University College London and a Data Scientist at the World Bank. My research has two threads: developing rigorous methods for causal inference in settings where experiments aren't possible, and exposing how much published findings depend on arbitrary analytical choices. My goal is to re-anchor scientific credibility in an era when trust in institutions — and in evidence itself — is under sustained attack.
Positions
- Assistant Professor in Data Science, UCL (2026–)
- Data Scientist & Consultant, World Bank (2023–)
- Assistant Professor, University of Exeter (2024–25)
- Postdoctoral Fellow, LSE (2022–24)
Education
- DPhil, University of Oxford
- MSc, London School of Economics
- Visiting, Columbia University
- BA, Zeppelin University
Collaborations and affiliated with
Research
My work focuses on causal inference, policy evaluation and the robustness of empirical findings in the social sciences.
Publications
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When Habit Prevails: A Causal Test of Policy Feedback Theory Using a Pension Reform
Does receiving a government benefit make you more likely to vote? A natural experiment using pension policy.
Authors: Michael Ganslmeier, Margaryta Klymak, Tim Vlandas · Conditionally Accepted -
Estimating the Extent and Sources of Model Uncertainty in Political Science
Why most political science findings change depending on how you measure them — and a systematic way to quantify this empirical uncertainty.
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On the Limits of Justified Model Spaces
Making disagreement visible: why narrowing model space cannot resolve fragility in empirical research.
Authors: Michael Ganslmeier, Tim Vlandas · Paper -
From Pledge to Poll: The Impact of Campaign Promises on Party Alignment
Do parties actually win voters when they make targeted campaign promises? A causal test using a German election.
Authors: Michael Ganslmeier · Paper · Harvard Dataverse -
Are Climate Change Policies Politically Costly?
Governments fear that climate policies cost votes. The evidence says otherwise — if designed right.
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Compliance with the First UK COVID-19 Lockdown
Who followed the rules and who didn't — and how weather shaped compliance during the first UK lockdown.
Authors: Michael Ganslmeier, Jonathan Van Parys, Tim Vlandas · Paper -
The Impact of Weather on the COVID-19 Pandemic
Temperature, humidity, and seasonality as key drivers of COVID-19 transmission across countries.
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Ageing and the Economy: A Literature Review of Political and Policy Mechanisms
How population ageing reshapes electoral politics and fiscal policy — a systematic review of the evidence.
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On the Complementarity between Labour Market Regulation and Tax Reforms in the EU
Why labour and tax reforms work better together — evidence from European structural adjustment programmes.
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Structural Reforms in Europe: Lessons from Early Experiences
What Europe's first wave of structural reforms actually achieved — and what it didn't. Lessons for future reform design.
Authors: Orkun Saka, Angelo Martelli, Michael Ganslmeier, Yuemei Ji, Nauro F. Campos, Paul De Grauwe · Chapter
Work in Progress
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Empirical Identification of Feasible and Strategic Climate Policies
Which climate policies are politically and institutionally viable? A data-driven map.
Authors: Penny Mealy, Michael Ganslmeier, Stephane Hallegatte · Funded by World Bank -
The Economic Costs of Temperature Volatility
Volatile temperatures — not just rising averages — are damaging economic output. Estimates from US firms.
Authors: Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Michael Ganslmeier, Marc Schiffbauer · Funded by World Bank / IMF -
Firm-Level Climate Change Adaptation: Micro Evidence from 134 Nations
How are firms actually adapting to climate change on the ground? Survey evidence from 134 countries.
Authors: Claudia Berg, Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Michael Ganslmeier, Arti Grover, Megan Lang, Marc Schiffbauer -
Political Integration and Trust in Foreigners
Does deeper political integration between nations reduce distrust of outsiders? Evidence from European integration.
Authors: Barry Eichengreen, Michael Ganslmeier, Orkun Saka
Writing
Public-facing writing on evidence, institutions, and data.
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Campaign promises as political coupons: Future benefits sway — but don't retain — voters
Why voters respond to promised benefits but forget about them quickly.
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Taking Stock of Welfare State Determinants: A New Approach to Assessing Robustness
A non-technical introduction to model uncertainty analysis and why it matters for comparative research.
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The Short Life of a Campaign Promise: When Voters Trade Loyalty for Benefits
The political economy of campaign promises — and voters only switch temporarily.
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Mütterrente: Wenn Rentenversprechen Wahlen entscheiden
Wie Rentenversprechen Wahlverhalten beeinflussen — eine kausale Untersuchung aus Deutschland.
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Social Distancing Measures: Warmer Temperatures Have a Substantial Effect on Non-Compliance Among Certain Groups
On the behavioural politics of pandemic compliance — and what weather has to do with it.
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Who Complies with Lockdown Measures in the UK?
A data-driven breakdown of which groups followed the rules — and why it matters for policy design.
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Design of Climate Change Policies Needs to Internalise Political Realities
Why technically optimal climate policies often fail politically — and what that means for how we design them.
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No More What Without the Why
On the limits of predictive modelling and the case for putting causal thinking at the centre of data science.
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Labour Market Regulation and Tax Reform Complement Each Other
Why structural reforms in Europe work better in combination — evidence from EU policy data.
Software
Open-source tools developed for research and policy analysis.
sensiverse
An R package for sensitivity and model uncertainty analysis in the social sciences. Explore large model spaces, quantify robustness, and visualize uncertainty.
PNAS Paper · GitHub · Tutorial
Global Weather Map
An interactive climate data platform built for the World Bank. Maps temperature, precipitation, and extreme event trends using ERA5 weather data.
Teaching
Courses at undergraduate, master, and doctoral level at UCL, LSE, Exeter, and Oxford.
Data Visualization
University College London
Causal Methods for Policy Evaluation
University of Exeter
Data Analysis in Social Science II
University of Exeter
Introduction to Programming
University of Exeter
Causal Inference for Observational Studies
London School of Economics
Research Design for Policy Evaluation
London School of Economics
Applied Regression Analysis
London School of Economics
Contact
For research collaboration, consulting, or media enquiries.
michael.ganslmeier@ucl.ac.uk
Twitter / X
@GanslmeierM
Google Scholar
Publication record & citations
michael-ganslmeier
GitHub
MGanslmeier
Office
UCL, Foster Court
London WC1E 6BT